Sometimes, we call things ‘boring’ simply because they lie outside the box we are currently in.” My work in Kenya, for example, was heavily influenced by a Christian Science Monitor article I had forced myself to read 10 years earlier. “Many things that end up” being meaningful, writes social scientist Joseph Grenny, “have come from conference workshops, articles, or online videos that began as a chore and ended with an insight.
"Even though Phil's predictions proved correct for some areas of the country, the difference in average temperatures between years he predicted an early spring (times he did not see his shadow) and years he did not (times he saw his shadow) varied by no more than a few degrees," the Post reported.Ībout a year ago, I happened upon this statement about the Monitor in the Harvard Business Review – under the charming heading of “do things that don’t interest you”: They calculated the average daily temperatures during the six weeks after Groundhog Day for thepast 30 years, comparing the temperatures in the years when Philsaw his shadow to those in the years he did not. He also saw it last year, foretelling a brutal winter throughout the Northeast.īut how often are Phil's shadowy forecasts accurate? Ī team of wonks at The Washington Post actually did the math. The prognosticating woodchuck saw his shadow today (Feb. From 1969 on, Phil's overall accuracy rate drops to about 36%.Every February, a small, furry mammal with buck teeth gets trotted out in front of a crowd in Pennsylvania to take part in a time-honored Groundhog Day tradition: If the beloved groundhog Punxsutawney Phil "sees" his shadow, the country is in for six more weeks of winter if he doesn't, we're in for an early spring. Phil does a shade poorer when you check his performance against actual weather outcomes since 1969, when the accuracy of weather records is less in question, said Tim Roche, a meteorologist at Weather Underground. Data from the Stormfax Almanac's data shows that Phil's six-week prognostications have been correct about 39% of the time. There are nine years without any records, and even the Punxsutawney Area Chamber of Commerce, which keeps track of these things, doesn't know what happened to Phil during those years.
(Contrary to popular belief, Phil doesn't actually have to see his shadow he just has to cast one to make his wintery prophecy.)Īccording to the Groundhog Club's records, the various incarnations of Punxsutawney Phil have predicted 104 forecasts of more winter and 20 early springs. 2, members of the club's Inner Circle rouse Phil at sunrise (this morning, they awakened him at 7:25 a.m.) to see if he casts a shadow. The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, takes care of Phil year-round, and on each Feb. Punxsutawney Phil was first tasked with predicting the upcoming spring weather in 1887, and the process hasn't changed much since.
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